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Original-Research: OHB SE - from NuWays AG
20.03.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE
Company Name: OHB SE
ISIN: DE0005936124
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 272
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
Margin path gains credibility, chg.
The CMD had already done most of the heavy lifting. OHB had pre-signalled EUR
2.1bn order intake in 2025 and its 2026-28 ambition. The FY25 release
therefore matters primarily for quality. Q4 adj. EBITDA reached EUR 45m on EUR
384m total revenues, implying an 11.6% margin. That is already above the 11%
EBITDA margin targeted for FY26, thus the margin path outlined at the CMD is
already visible in the exit rate. Importantly, Q4 25 likely still reflects
only limited benefit from a richer defence mix, to our understanding, still
accounting for only c. 10% of group sales (eNuW). As defence scales up, this
should support the mid-term EBITDA margin target of >12% (in line with
eNuW).
FY26 guidance looks fully consistent with the CMD framework. OHB guides for
c. EUR 1.4bn total revenues, broadly in line with our EUR 1.44bn estimate (c.
15% yoy growth), alongside an EBITDA margin of c. 11% (eNuW: 10.7%).
The second relevant datapoint came one day earlier with EPS-Sterna. The EUR
248m order covers 20 small satellites and is strategically relevant. It
shows OHB is seen capable of turning a single demonstrator into serial
constellation production. In fact, this capability should become more
important e.g. with the tender for SATCOMBw 4.
SATCOMBw 4 is taking shape. Recent press reports indicate that Airbus, OHB
and Rheinmetall intend to submit a joint bid for the Bundeswehr's sovereign
LEO communications network, reportedly comprising >100 satellites and
carrying a total contract value of EUR 8-10bn. Compared with earlier reports,
the inclusion of Airbus changes the setup. While this likely lowers OHB's
potential workshare versus the narrower bidder group, it should also raise
award certainty materially. We now view a one-third share as realistic. Even
on that basis, the programme could imply c. EUR 2.7- 3.3bn of cumulative order
intake for OHB and should be margin accretive, in our view.
OHB combines a credible earnings ramp with growing participation in Europe's
sovereign space build-out. The Q4 margin of 11.6% already sits above the
FY26 target, although our FY26 estimate of 10.7% still leaves room for
normal quarterly volatility. EPS-Sterna and SATCOMBw 4 also support the view
that OHB is strengthening its position in constellation-driven programmes.
Key catalysts are further large orders in 2026, which we continue to expect
mostly in H2, more detail on SATCOMBw4, additional constellation wins after
EPS-Sterna and operational progress at RFA. Each of these looks set to
support order intake assumptions or improve confidence in OHB's strategic
positioning.
BUY maintained, on a rolled over DCF; new PT EUR 272 (old: EUR 260).
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=b79aaceb44fb44eafddce306df9ece72
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2294934 20.03.2026 CET/CEST
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