Endlos Turbo Long 4,0053 open end: Basiswert MLP

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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

14.03.2025 / 09:01 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE

ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 14.03.2025

Target price: EUR 13.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Q4 in line; dividend and new mid-term targets out; chg. est & PT

Q4 in line: Q4 total sales stood at EUR 303m (eNuW: EUR 303m; +5% yoy), whereas

EBIT expanded by 12% yoy at EUR 29m (eNuW: EUR 29m), thus reaching the upper end

of the EBIT guidance of EUR 85-95m (FY'24: EUR 95m). The main driver of Q4 EBIT

in particular was the absence of a goodwill impairment (vs. EUR 4m in Q4'23).

The FY'24 EBIT benefitted from performance fees of EUR 34m (eNuW: EUR 28m) and a

solid banking business (NIC: EUR 56m), but were also dragged down by the RE

segment (EUR -12m EBIT). - see p. 2 for detailed sales split

20% dividend raise: Following an EPS increase by 43%, management proposed a

dividend increase by 20% yoy to EUR 0.36 per share (eNuW: EUR 0.36), after 3

years of keeping DPS flat at EUR 0.30. This currently yields 5.1% and is

tax-free according to § 27 KStG.

FY'25e guidance: As expected, MLP guides for EUR 100-110m EBIT (i.e. the old

mid-term targets), which implies an EBIT expansion of 5-15% yoy, which is in

line with our estimates (eNuW: EUR 105m). As we expect a lower performance

fees than last year (eNuW: EUR 4m in '25 vs. EUR 34m in '24), the main EBIT

driver should be the EBIT break-even in the RE segment

Deutschland.Immobilien (FY'24: EUR -12m EBIT vs. eNuW: EUR 2m in '25e). - for a

detailed EBIT breakdown see p. 2

New FY'28e mid-term targets: MLP expects sales between EUR 1,300-1,400m (eNuW:

EUR 1,309m) and an EBIT between EUR 140-150m (eNuW: EUR 141m) by FY'28e, which

implies top line CAGRs of 5-7% coupled with a EBIT margin expansion to

10-12% (FY'24: 9.2%). Furthermore, MLP aims for EUR 75-81bn AuMs (eNuW: EUR

77.3bn) and a non-life insurance volume of EUR 1,000-1,100m (eNuW: EUR1,036m).

Assuming the dividend policy of a 50-70% payout, and based on an EPS between

EUR 0.90-0.95 by FY'28e, the dividend should grow with a CAGR of 12% at

mid-point, making MLP an attractive dividend payer, in our view. All of the

targets are in line with our estimates and should thus be well achievable.

Mid-term targets rely on persistent demographic trends: In our view, the

targets show the management's confidence in its steadily growing, well

diversified and resilient business model. In particular, we like to see that

the targets are less prone to short-term macroeconomic developments, but

rely on undisputable demograhic trends visible all around. For example, baby

boomers are starting to retire and at the same time an inheritance wave is

visible (c. EUR 400bn inheritances annually in Germany). This creates not only

demand from private clients in all of questions of wealth management, but

also demand from corporate clients for occupational health insurance or

pension schemes. Furthermore, the average pension gap in Germany is

estimated at EUR 2,300 p.m. (thanks to an insufficient state pension among

other reasons), which creates demand for private pensions, life insurance

solutions and/or wealth management services such as RE investments, fund

solutions and savings plans, especially from private clients that are not

about to inherit a large sum of money. For all the demand drivers above, MLP

offers plenty solutions, which leads us to see MLP well positioned to

capture the trend.

In sum, MLP keeps on delivering as promised and we maintain our bullish view

on the stock, as we regard its valuation not justified, especially in light

of the strong position and solid growth prospects. Therefore, we keep MLP in

our NuWays Alpha List and reiterate with our BUY recommendation with a new

PT of EUR 13.00 (old: EUR 12.50), based on SOTP and FCFY'25e.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31978.pdf

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2100682 14.03.2025 CET/CEST

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