Mini-Future Long 11,38 open end: Basiswert tonies

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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG

28.07.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name: tonies SE

ISIN: LU2333563281

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 18.5

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Christian Sandherr

Toniebox Lite unveiled; launch already in August

tonies announced the launch of Toniebox Lite, a smaller and lighter version

of its flagship TB2, delivering the core listening experience while being

compatible with all Tonies ever released.

At $ 79.99 (bundled with one Tonie), the Lite comes at roughly half the

price of TB2 ($ 149.99), marking a substantially lower entry point into the

ecosystem. The device launches first in North America, with pre-orders via

tonies.com and walmart.com, in-store availability at Walmart from August 22

and further NA channels to follow through September and October. The UK,

Ireland, Australia and New Zealand will follow in fall 2026. Launches in

DACH and France are expected in 2027 at the earliest, partly reflecting the

already high penetration of the installed base within the relevant customer

group.

Limited cannibalization risk, in our view. While the price gap might raise

cannibalization concerns at first glance, we regard the two devices as

clearly complementary rather than substitutive. The Lite deliberately lacks

TB2's key differentiators (e.g. Tonieplay gaming and light ring), keeping

TB2 the clear first choice for the primary device at home. Instead, the Lite

should predominantly address (1) existing households buying a second box for

travel, grandparents' homes or siblings, incremental demand that would

otherwise largely not materialize at $ 149.99 and (2) price-sensitive

first-time buyers who would not have entered the ecosystem at TB2's price

point in the first place. In both cases, the sale is additive rather than

substitutive.

Feeding the flywheel. Most importantly, every additional device sold

enlarges the installed base, driving high-margin figurine sales in a

subscription-like manner, regardless of whether the box costs $ 79.99 or $

149.99. Notably, the lower hardware price should hence be more than

compensated by the high-margin attach revenues it unlocks. With the Lite

hitting shelves right ahead of the all-important Christmas quarter and

alongside blockbuster content launches (Pokémon, Bluey), the setup for H2

strengthens further, rendering the FY26 guidance (group sales >20% yoy cc,

NA sales >30% yoy cc) increasingly conservative, in our view.

Our take: Another proof point of the tonies thesis; a category-defining

ecosystem evolving from a single-product hardware player into a multi-device

platform with subscription-like repurchase behaviour and a content moat

licensors now chase. The Lite meaningfully expands the funnel into that

ecosystem, particularly in the underpenetrated US (12% household penetration

vs 58% in DACH). Moreover, the initial retail exclusivity with Walmart

should further strengthen the partnership with tonies likely accelerating

the roll-out across physical stores and potentially increasing shelf space

(eNuW).

BUY with an unchanged EUR 18.50 PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=3c7a0f0cfae5f3d009d0b9568a3a038e

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2372368 28.07.2026 CET/CEST

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