Discount 10 2027/09: Basiswert MLP

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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

05.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE

ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 14

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Guidance catches up, we stay ahead; chg.

MLP raised its FY26 EBIT guidance to EUR 110-120m (old eCons: EUR 112m) from EUR

100-110m last Friday, increasing the mid-point by c. 10%. The revised range

still leaves room for a beat (eNuW). We raise FY26e EBIT to EUR 123m

(previously: EUR 116m), c. 7% above the revised mid-point. Beyond the current

earnings momentum, Germany's pension reform opens a further growth

opportunity from 2027.

Q3 performance fees make the guidance hike look conservative. Strong

investment performance at FERI lifted performance-based compensation to c. EUR

21m in Q3, up from EUR 2.8m a year earlier. The quarterly total was almost

twice the EUR 10.7m generated throughout FY25. Management's previous guidance

assumed no further performance fees in H2. Assuming an incremental EBIT

margin of c. 66% on performance fees (eNuW), Q3 fees alone imply an EBIT

contribution of c. EUR 14m, exceeding the EUR 10m increase at the guidance

mid-point. The revised guidance likely assumes no further performance fees

in Q4. With the funds appearing close to their high-water marks, further

gains could trigger additional fees before year-end, supporting upside

potential.

Higher rates add earnings momentum into FY27. The ECB's September hike took

the deposit rate to 2.5%, following June's increase to 2.25%. MLP holds c. EUR

3.2bn of interest-earning banking receivables, including EUR 918m of overnight

Bundesbank deposits that immediately benefit from the higher rate. On

unchanged volumes, each 0.25pp increase in the average yield across the

entire book adds c. EUR 8m of annual gross interest income before slightly

higher funding costs (eNuW).

Pension reform opens a new recurring revenue opportunity. From January 2027,

the Altersvorsorgedepot will allow state-subsidised investment in funds and

ETFs without a mandatory capital guarantee. In our view, voluntary transfers

of existing Riester savings are the key earnings driver for MLP. We expect

the new depot to generate recurring fees on accumulated assets, broadening

MLP's revenue opportunity beyond Riester's contribution-linked remuneration.

As these assets transfer into the new system, a preliminary estimate points

to c. EUR 6-7m of incremental EBIT p.a. by 2028 (eNuW; net), supporting higher

FY27-28 forecasts.

The advisory opportunity extends beyond retirement saving. Choosing a

suitable product, deciding whether to transfer existing savings and

determining an appropriate investment strategy should stimulate discussions

with both existing and new clients. These conversations give MLP's advisers

an opportunity to review clients' wider financial needs, supporting

additional business in wealth management, insurance and financing, in our

view.

Action: EPS estimates raised by c. 5% on average for FY26-28, reflecting

higher performance fees and interest income, plus Germany's pension reform.

Detailed Q3 results on 12 November should provide further evidence on

underlying growth and the interest result. Stronger near-term earnings and

an additional pension growth opportunity support our BUY, new PT EUR 14 (old:

EUR 12), based on a higher ROE in our Residual Income model.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=f6ad7f380caffdaec0b73c334a05fe99

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2409934 05.10.2026 CET/CEST

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