Verbio SE

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Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG

31.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE

Company Name: Verbio SE

ISIN: DE000A0JL9W6

Reason for the research: Initiation

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 41

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Jorge Gonzalez

Renewable fuels entering a new cycle; INITIATE WITH BUY

VERBIO is one of Europe's leading integrated biorefineries, converting

agricultural feedstocks and residues into biodiesel, bioethanol, biomethane,

renewable chemicals and higher-value co-products. Its production network

across Germany, the US, Canada and India maximises the value extracted from

every tonne of biomass, while providing diversification across products,

geographies, feedstocks and regulatory regimes.

Following two years of depressed profitability, mainly due to distortions in

the German GHG quota market, weak bioethanol economics and the US ramp-up,

VERBIO has entered a structural earnings recovery. Preliminary FY25/26

EBITDA reached EUR 192m (+EUR 178m yoy). Excluding a c.EUR 20m one-off benefit

from GHG quota inventory write-down reversals, underlying EBITDA recovered

to c.EUR 172m, driven mainly by the normalisation of German GHG quota

economics (eNuW: c.2/3 of EBITDA growth), stronger European bioethanol

spreads and higher US production.

Importantly, the regulatory backdrop is improving as VERBIO completes its

largest investment programme. Higher GHG quota prices increase the value of

the existing European asset base, while rising utilisation in Nevada, the

gradual conversion of South Bend towards integrated ethanol/RNG production

and renewable chemicals provide additional operating leverage. The

integrated bioethanol/biomethane business remains structurally the most

attractive part of the portfolio, combining multiple revenue streams,

favourable long-term demand fundamentals and additional upside from the

monetisation of CO savings.

We believe VERBIO is transitioning from an investment-led to a

monetisation-led phase. In addition to the ramp-up of recently completed

assets, c.0.66m tonnes of accumulated 2024 GHG quotas (eNuW) represent

significant latent value. At our EUR 400/tCO assumption, these imply c.EUR 227m

net cash proceeds, which we expect to be monetised across FY27/28e and

FY28/29e.

The next two months could prove particularly important. FY25/26 results in

late September should provide further detail on the earnings recovery, while

the Capital Markets Day in early October should offer greater visibility on

medium-term earnings potential, capital allocation and the rollout of

renewable chemicals.

We initiate coverage with BUY and a PT of EUR 41, based primarily on average

normalised FCF across FY27/28e and FY28/29e. Assuming EUR 400/tCO GHG quota

prices, below current spot levels, and no exceptionally strong biofuel

margin environment, our forecasts imply an adjusted FCF yield of c.10% in

FY27/28e, rising further in FY28/29e, while the market still assigns limited

value to regulatory normalisation, recently commissioned assets and

renewable chemicals.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=ee847d42a22ce2047aa2aaf747b14bfc

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2390714 31.08.2026 CET/CEST

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