Discount 28 2027/03: Basiswert Verbio SE

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Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG

09.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE

Company Name: Verbio SE

ISIN: DE000A0JL9W6

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 41

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Jorge Gonzalez

CMD: Investment case confirmed, US upside emerging

VERBIO's Capital Markets Day (CMD) confirms our investment case, with

additional upside from US tax incentives making the medium-term outlook even

more compelling. Following strong FY25/26 results, which confirmed the

earnings turnaround (+9.5pp yoy in EBITDA margin to 10.4%), management

illustrated the group's normalised earnings potential, highlighted progress

in renewable chemicals and reinforced its focus on cash generation. Key

takeaways:

Illustrative mid-cycle EBITDA of c.EUR 300m supports our estimates. Management

presented down-, mid- and up-cycle EBITDA scenarios of EUR 130m, EUR 300m and EUR

500m, respectively. The mid-cycle scenario assumes German GHG quota prices

of EUR 400/t (in line with current levels), normalised biofuel spreads and

full utilisation of existing assets (vs only 70% in bioethanol and 65% in US

RNG in FY25/26, the latter reflecting Nevada only). This broadly matches our

FY30/31-FY31/32 adjusted EBITDA estimates of c.EUR 290-300m p.a., including a

growing contribution from renewable chemicals (eNuW: >80% utilisation), but

excluding potential CO capture benefits at Schwedt.

US incentives provide meaningful additional upside. Management sees US$

30-50m in annual underlying US EBITDA potential from higher utilisation and

biogas integration, broadly consistent with our assumptions (eNuW: c.80%

ethanol utilisation and 25-35% biogas integration at South Bend). This

operating contribution is already reflected in the group's normalised

earnings potential, whereas incremental 45Z and 45Q tax credits for

lower-carbon fuel production and CO capture are excluded. Management

illustrated theoretical gross annual 45Z credits of US$ 13-130m at 90%

utilisation, depending on carbon intensity and before potential value

sharing. The programme runs through 2029, with potential retroactive claims

from 2025. Final US regulatory guidance expected in November should improve

visibility.

Renewable chemicals progressing towards commercialisation. With the first

commercial expansion stage operational, VERBIO has delivered over 130

product samples across seven application segments, including lubricants,

personal and home care, surfactants and polymers. Technical approval rates

reach 90% in certain applications, supporting the transition towards initial

commercial volumes and a growing earnings contribution.

Shift towards cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. Following

a substantial investment cycle, more disciplined capital allocation and

higher asset utilisation should support stronger cash generation. Capex has

fallen from EUR 203m in FY22/23 to EUR 87m in FY25/26 (FY26/27e: c.EUR 55m, eNuW),

while monetisation of accumulated GHG quotas should further support

deleveraging (eNuW: EUR 220m in cash proceeds). A minimum dividend of EUR

0.20/sh. is envisaged through the cycle, ahead of discretionary growth

investments.

eNuW: BUY reiterated; PT unchanged at EUR 41. We leave FY26/27 estimates

unchanged while increasing FY27/28 and FY28/29 EBITDA by EUR 10m each (+3%),

reflecting a conservative initial 45Z contribution. We also incorporate c.EUR

45m of additional cash tax payments in FY26/27 relating to prior-year

earnings, temporarily weighing on FCF and increasing projected net debt.

These adjustments leave our EUR 41 PT unchanged, based on the average

FY27/28-FY28/29 FCF yield.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=462bf09bafb3f5d143c21f6b258b66e4

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2413036 09.10.2026 CET/CEST

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