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Original-Research: bet-at-home.com AG - from NuWays AG
10.11.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to bet-at-home.com AG
Company Name: bet-at-home.com AG
ISIN: DE000A0DNAY5
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 5.5
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
Topic: Last week, bet-at-home reported soft Q3 figures that were below our
estimates on both, top and bottom line. Further, the majority shareholder
Betclic Everest Group SAS announced that it will sell its 53.9% stake in
bet-at-home. In detail:
Sales came in at EUR 10.2m (-14% qoq, -16% yoy), significantly below our
estimates of EUR 12.5m (eNuW), mainly driven by the absence of major events
such as a soccer World Cup or a European championship this year as well as
unfavourable soccer results in Q3 (i.e. many favourite wins), resulting in
lower betting margins. With betting volumes of EUR 66m (-19% yoy) and margins
of 13.0% (vs. 14.1% in Q2), EUR 8.5m GGR (-20% yoy) were achieved in the
Betting segment . The Gaming segment developed nicely and in line with
expectations: EUR 1.7m GGR (+12% yoy) stemming from EUR 14m volume (6% yoy) and
a margin of 12.1% (vs 11.5% in Q3Ž24). Still, the Gaming segment with only
17% revenue share is not yet able to compensate for the soft results in the
Betting segment.
EBITDA before special items of EUR -0.9m was below estimates of EUR 1.0m and
previous yearŽs figure of EUR 1.6m, due to the soft top line, while OPEX came
in broadly in line with estimates. Lower personnel expenses of EUR 2.0m (1%
yoy vs eNuW: EUR 2.2m) and lower other OPEX of EUR 2.9m (-65% yoy vs eNuW: EUR
3.1m) compensated for higher marketing expenses of EUR 4.3m (23% yoy vs eNuW:
EUR 3.8m). Reported EBITDA stood at EUR -1.7m (vs EUR 1.2m in Q3Ž24 vs eNuW: EUR
1.0m).
After the disappointing Q3, we are expecting a stronger Q4 and Q1Ž26, as the
inflated marketing expenses usually materialize within 3-6 month and as Q4
and Q1 are historically the strongest quarters of the year, always
compensating for softer Q2/Q3. Despite the fact that we cut our estimates
after the weak Q3 results, the company should easily achieve its guidance of
EUR 46-54m sales and EUR 0-4m EBITDA before special items (vs. eNuW: EUR 49m sales
and EUR 2.0m EBITDA before special items). Going forward, the structural
trends (growing online betting and gaming market, the dry out of the black
market and the increasing acceptance and adoption of betting and gaming) are
fully intact. Tailwinds should come potential positive ECJ ruling that is
now expected for Q1 next year. With a likely ruling of the ECJ in favour of
the betting providers, the current customer claims against bet-at-home and -
even more importantly - the looming risks of new customer claims would be
off the table, together with related lifted legal costs.
Apart from that, the Banijay Group N.V, which is the mother of bah's major
shareholder Betclic Everest Group SAS, announced that it has entered into an
agreement to acquire a majority stake in the Tipico Group. As part of the
transaction, Betclic will sell its 53.9% stake in bah. We we assume that
antitrust reasons are behind the divestment. More details around the
divestment are expected to be published until year end. Regarding the
potential selling price everything but a significant premium to the current
low share price would be a surprise for us (still, we do not expect one
party to disclose the price).
We reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 5.50 based on FCFYŽ26e.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=ef8460e5d41f1a86c7b788110dfc5c23
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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