MLP AG

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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

15.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST

Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS

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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE

ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 15.08.2025

Target price: EUR 13.00

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Q2 in line with estimates, guidance confirmed and in reach

Topic: Yesterday, MLP released final Q2 results in line with the preliminary

EBIT figure, giving further insights into its moving parts. In detail:

Q2 sales arrived as expected flat yoy at EUR 228m (eNuW: EUR 230m), as a mix of

manifold revenue drivers: Wealth declined by 4% yoy to EUR 120m (eNuW: EUR 117m)

due to lower interest income and the much lower performance fees. On an

underlying level (sales ex performance fees), the Wealth competence field

could actually grow sales by 3.5% yoy. Life & Health grew modestly by 1% yoy

to EUR 66m (eNuW: EUR 69m) on the back of a strong health insurance business

(+8% yoy). Moreover, P&C showed a strong growth of 9% yoy to EUR 37m (eNuW: EUR

35m).

As already announced per ad-hoc on 31st July, Q2 EBIT came in at EUR 4.9m with

a 2.1% margin (-2.9 pp yoy) in a seasonally weak quarter. The main reason

behind this development is a mix of many moving parts:

1.

Lower interest rate environment: the recent ECB interest rate cuts led

to a lower net interest income (NIC) of EUR 13.2m (Q2'24: EUR 14.2m), for

which we assume an 85% incremental EBIT margin (i.e. a EUR -0.9m yoy EBIT

effect).

2.

Lower performance fees: Q2'24 had a positive EUR 5.4m performance fee

contribution, whereas Q2'25 only had EUR 1.6m, due to volatile capital

markets. Assuming a 65% incremental EBIT margin of performance fees,

this should have led to a negative EUR 2.5m yoy EBIT effect.

3.

Temporarily higher IT costs: in an anyhow seasonally weak quarter, the

timing of temporarily higher IT costs (eNuW: EUR 1.5m) was unfavorable,

further dragging EBIT.

Nevertheless, MLP confirmed its FY'25 EBIT guidance of EUR 100-110m. Although

H2'25 now requires an EBIT of EUR 57-67m (vs. H2'24 of EUR 46m EBIT incl. a EUR

16m EBIT contribution from performance fees), in order to reach the

guidance, management feels confident to achieve it. On the back of

continuous momentum in health insurance, non-life insurance as well as RE

brokerage (which comed with operating leverage and higher brokerage margins)

and with some EUR 4m in H2 performance fees baked in, we expect H2 EBIT of EUR

59m, in line with the guidance. Admittedly, the target now seems at risk if

the RE development segment Deutschland.Immobilien does not develop as

planned in H2. However, Q3'24 saw a strong performance fee contribution from

unobservable (and unpredictable) PE fund carries of EUR 17m. These might also

be in the cards for Q3'25 (at a lower or maybe similar magnitude) and would

thus support reaching the guidance, but that remains speculative for now.

All in all, the release should not have come as a surprise. Consequently, we

regard the negative share price reaction yesterday as overdone and on the

contrary recommend to BUY, as the shares remain attractively valued (only

6.6x FY'25e EBIT). As our estimates remain unchanged, we also maintain our

PT of EUR 13.00, based on SOTP and FCFY'25e.

You can download the research here:

https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=bd7609f470567acc161d63c25dfad970

For additional information visit our website:

https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss

bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben

analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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2184370 15.08.2025 CET/CEST

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