Vossloh AG

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Original-Research: Vossloh AG - from Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft

26.10.2026 / 14:36 CET/CEST

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Classification of Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft to Vossloh AG

Company Name: Vossloh AG

ISIN: DE0007667107

Reason for the research: update

Recommendation: Buy

from: 26.10.2026

Target price: 76.00

Last rating change:

Analyst: Martin Kaeser

Q4 key to FY 2026 guidance

Vossloh delivered mixed Q3 2026 results, with revenue increasing by 15.6%

yoy to EUR 376.6m (~-5% without Sateba), EBITDA of EUR 47.6m at the

prior-year level and EBIT of EUR 24.2m (-22.8% yoy). On a TTM basis, the

book-to-bill ratio stands at 1.05x, supporting revenue visibility.

Nevertheless, a strong year-end performance is necessary to achieve

guidance. Taking the Q3 2026 results into consideration, Q4 revenue of EUR

~423.2m (~-2.6% yoy), EBITDA of EUR ~66.5m (~15.5% yoy) and EBIT of EUR

~43.4m (~21.6% yoy) would be required to reach the lower ends of the FY 2026

guidance ranges. Sateba is running below its implied prior-year revenue

level. Based on Vossloh's FY25 acquisition disclosure, we calculate Sateba

sales of ~EUR 248m for 9M 2025, compared with ~EUR 218m in 9M 2026, implying

a decline of roughly 12% yoy. For Q4, management expects a significant

acceleration in earnings, supported by healthy-margin machine deliveries in

Lifecycle Solutions, the expected realization of delayed projects in Morocco

and Italy, and higher customer call-offs, including from the Deutsche Bahn.

Improved volume absorption and UK capacity adjustments should provide

additional margin support. Furthermore, the company confirmed and specified

its 2026 guidance. Sales are now expected to be around the midpoint of the

range (EUR 1.51-1.61bn), while EBITDA (EUR 195-210m) and EBIT (EUR 100-110m)

are anticipated to be at the lower parts of their respective ranges. We

maintain our Buy rating with a reduced TP of EUR 76 (80), based on our

ROE/COE approach, underpinned by Vossloh's favorable long-term growth

prospects and structurally recurring replacement and modernization demand.

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Contact for questions:

Quirin Privatbank AG

Institutionelles Research

Schillerstraße 20

60313 Frankfurt am Main

research@quirinprivatbank.de

https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/

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2422286 26.10.2026 CET/CEST

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