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Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. - from Sphene Capital GmbH
20.07.2026 / 12:21 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of Sphene Capital GmbH to Almonty Industries Inc.
Company Name: Almonty Industries Inc.
ISIN: CA0203987072
Reason for the research: Update Report
Recommendation: Buy
from: 20.07.2026
Target price: CAD 38.90 (previously: CAD 37.40)
Target price on sight of: 36 months
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Peter Thilo Hasler
Extension of the off-take agreement increases planning certainty
Almonty has significantly expanded its long-term off-take agreement, in
place since 2018, with Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP), a subsidiary of the
Austrian Plansee Group. The agreement relates exclusively to production from
Phase I of the Sangdong mine and will in future cover around 90% of the
tungsten concentrates produced there. The contract term has been extended to
21 from 15 years and will therefore run until the late 2040s. At the same
time, the contractually binding supply volume has increased by 40% to 4.41
million MTU, which, once full production capacity is reached, corresponds to
a minimum annual purchase of 210,000 MTU. Particularly positive is, in our
view, the renegotiation of the pricing formula: for all contract volumes,
the realisable selling price will increase by an average of 6.3%. Based on
the current APT price level, management expects this to generate additional
revenue of at least USD 30 mn per year, or around USD 630 mn over the entire
contract term.
The contract amendment took place immediately after the Sangdong plant
commenced operations and, in our view, significantly improves the visibility
of future cash flows. At the same time, it confirms the mine's strategic
importance for Western supply chains. GTP is one of North America's leading
manufacturers of tungsten powders and supplies customers in the US defence
and aerospace industries, amongst others. Against the backdrop of Chinese
export restrictions and a structurally tight tungsten market, GTP is thereby
securing long-term access to conflict-free tungsten produced outside China.
From our perspective, it is also worth noting that the agreement covers only
production from the first phase of development. The planned Phase II, which
is intended to roughly double the mine's processing capacity, is not part of
the contract, nor is production from Almonty's other mines. This leaves
Almonty with a significant share of future volumes that can be marketed at a
later date - possibly under even more attractive market conditions.
Reflecting the continued and, in our view, sustainable strength in tungsten
prices, we raise our price target to CAD 38.90 from CAD 37.40 per share. Our
updated valuation incorporates higher GTP payables and current APT tungsten
prices for Sangdong, revised forecasts for Panasqueira, Gentung, and Los
Santos, and a discounted valuation of the Valtreixal development project.
This implies an upside of 102.1% from yesterday's closing price of CAD
19.25. We view the recent share price weakness as a buying opportunity and
reiterate our Buy rating for the shares of Almonty Industries.
You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=60a1b537fc3bed6481cabdde6fb92e6a
Contact for questions:
Peter Thilo Hasler, CEFA
+49 (152) 31764553
peter-thilo.hasler@sphene-capital.de
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2368544 20.07.2026 CET/CEST
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